Obama and missile defense

One of Obama's first tasks will be getting out of the pickle Russia has put him in over missile defense. Last week I discussed Medvedev's carefully timed announcement that Russia would "neutralize" our BMD assets in Poland and the Czech Republic by deploying missiles along Russia's western border. (another link: US trying to re-engage Russia in BMD talks).

This is Putin's way of testing Obama.

The situation is complex: Iran is going to proliferate during Obama's administration. BMD is the only way to protect the US and our allies from Iranian aggression - if it works. Since Georgia, public opinion in our BMD partner countries has turned in favor of BMD deployment. At this point, our relationship with Poland - which we have done our best to destroy during the last decade - will be affected by our choice. Meanwhile, Russia is very angry over BMD deployment - the actions in Georgia are at least partly a response to US BMD efforts. The Medvedev/Putin approval ratings in Russia depend on them being tough with the US.

Now this from the BBC:

US President-elect Barack Obama has not given a commitment to go ahead with plans to build part of a US missile defence system in Poland, an aide says.

He was speaking after Polish President Lech Kaczynski's office said a pledge had been made during a phone conversation between the two men.

But Mr Obama's foreign policy adviser, Denis McDonough, denied this.

Whether the commitment occurred or not is irrelevant.

The bottom line is, Obama is in a tight situation. If he chooses to halt BMD plans, he will anger Poland and the Czech Republic. Israel will be concerned. Domestic foreign policy hawks will cite our increased vulnerability to rogue states. Our perceived power will suffer, since everyone now knows that China and others are close to gaining BMD technology. And: Russia will score a foreign policy point for successfully pressuring Obama into obeying their will. Putin will think he can push Obama around for the next 12+ years - and he'll try to do it. The new president, already plagued by a reputation for foreign policy naivete, will look weak.

If Obama continues the BMD plans, we can expect continuing Russia aggression in Eastern Europe. Putin/Medvedev will publicly claim that Obama does not, after all, indicate a change in US foreign policy, since he is continuing something the Bush Administration started. Russia will continue to hold up talks about Iran, Zimbabwe, and just about everything else. Our European allies will be further forced into making choices.

Good luck, Mr. President.