Thursday, January 29, 2009

538 Update: top economists on the stimulus

Several weeks ago, 538 published a list of top 20 economists (give or take) and their positions on the current stimulus bill. The list needs updating, both because many have opined since then and also because Silver wasn't entirely honest. A new list, as best I can tell, is below (though I preserve unchanged elements from Silver's list). Stimulus proponents are in blue; opponents are in red; and green are hard to tell:

1. Joseph E. Stiglitz. Favors big/bigger stimulus, but the current bill doesn't meet his criteria (link).
2. Andrei Schleifer. I'll call him against it, since he says Obama is "weak on economic understanding, is not listening to his economic team, or his economic team is not providing solid advice." (link).
3. Robert J. Barro (link).
4. James Heckman
5. Robert Lucas. Skeptical, thinks monetary tools still exist (link).
6. Peter C.B. Phillips
7. Edward Prescott (link).
8. Martin Feldstein (link).
9. Jean Tirole
10. Daron Acemoglu. Supports idea of stimulus, but is leaning against the specific bill for fear of adverse effects on innovation, growth, and attitudes towards markets (link).
11. Larry Summers. Member of Obama economic team, favors stimulus (link).
12. John Y. Campbell
13. Oliver Blanchard. No direct support, but insinuates such (link).
14. Mark Gertler
15. Paul Krugman. Thinks action is needed drastically, worried stimulus won't be large enough. (no specific link; see daily tirades at NYT)
16. Christopher F. Baum
17. Thomas Sargent. Skeptical, thinks stimulus math is based on outmoded economic models (link)
18. Maurice Obstfeld
19. Stephen Turnovsky
20. Nicholas Cox

This makes the current score six against, three for, and two who are uncertain (but their leanings are split, for/against). I have suspicions about several others (having read their academic work), but I can't draw conclusions yet. If anyone finds links to any others, let me know.