The Cold War Lite Thaw

According to a Russian official, “The new US Administration is not pushing ahead with the plans to deploy the US missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia does not need to deploy Iskanders in Kaliningrad if the US does not install missile defence facilities in Eastern Europe.”

After a phone call between Presidents Obama and Medvedev, the White House yesterday released this statement, “The presidents agreed that, as they were both new leaders from a post-Cold War generation, they have a unique opportunity to establish a fundamentally different kind of relationship between our two countries.”

Serious rapprochement with Russia would be smart of Obama. He has nothing to gain from continued antagonism with Russia and will need their help to deter Iran's nuclear ambitions, reform the UN Security Council, and (who better?) help turn the tide in Afghanistan. Cozying up to Russia would also silence gadflies like Chavez and Castro, and give credibility to Obama's efforts to recast the US as a friendly nation willing to "extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist."

What would Obama have to give up for better relations? For one, NATO expansion into Georgia and Ukraine would probably be off the table. Additionally, relations with Eastern Europe, and by extension, Brussels, would likely take a hit. Lastly, it might have to tone down criticisms of Russia's continued autocratic tendencies. But these are small costs for the US to persuade Russia to become a reasonably reliable international ally.